TokenInsight TradFi Weekly #008: Meta's Earnings Night, Up First and Down After

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1) The week outside: chips, Treasuries and gold

Chips fell again. On 22 October, after Meta raised its capex outlook, worries about AI spending spread to chipmakers. SOXL perps, which track a 3× chip ETF, fell 18.2% that day.

Treasury yields eased. The 10-year yield fell about 17 basis points on 22 October to 4.96%, its first close under 5% in a month.

Gold and oil split. Gold perps fell 4.4% on the week to $4,006; oil perps rose 4.6% to $102.2.

2) Movers: 42% of perps rose

Among the 111 OKX TradFi perps with at least $1M in weekly volume (excluding leveraged and inverse ETFs), 47 rose this week, or 42%. Last week, fewer than 15% did.

Top gainer: Unitree (UNITREE), +52.1%. Unitree is a robot maker listed on Shanghai's STAR Market. Its perp traded $295M this week.

CrowdStrike (CRWD), +12.3%: a cybersecurity company; security stocks rallied broadly this week.

Top loser: Securitize (SECZ), −20.8%. The tokenization platform listed on the NYSE in July.

TTM (TTMI, −17.7%) and Bloom Energy (BE, −15.4%) both fell after reporting on 22 October. TTM said lead times for key components had stretched to 24 weeks; Bloom's third-quarter operating cash flow was negative.

3) Meta's earnings night: +5.1% from 4pm to 5pm ET, then −12.6%

We split the Meta perp's week into three parts (OKX, hourly closes):

Monday open to 4pm ET on 21 October: −2.0%

4pm to 5pm ET on 21 October (results came after the close): +5.1%

5pm to Sunday's close: −12.6%

Full week: −9.9%

The perp rose as soon as the results came out, then slid the next day and closed Sunday at 642.5.

Media coverage pointed to two reasons: Meta raised its full-year capex outlook, and its third-quarter free cash flow turned negative for the first time. That revived concerns about the return on AI spending.

The other big tech names report next, and their perps have already moved. Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close on Wednesday, 28 October; their perps fell 2.0% and 6.4% last week. Amazon reports after the close on Thursday, 29 October (−1.1%), and Apple after the close on Monday, 2 November (+0.3%). Alphabet fell the most, and Apple was the only one of the four to rise. Alphabet's date comes from media reports and is pending company confirmation.

4) Exchanges: $208.0B traded

TradFi perps traded $208.0B this week, up 4.9%, above all four weeks we tracked before. The weekly change compares the same exchanges in both weeks.

Weekend volume fell 20%, from $17.0B to $13.6B.

Binance's share rose to 55.0%. Gate (+14%) and OKX (+11%) grew fastest; Hyperliquid, Bitget and Bybit slipped slightly.

5) Weekend gap: most perps opened above the stock

At 8pm ET on Sunday, when US overnight trading reopened, we compared perp and stock prices for 11 names:

9 of the 11 perps were priced above the stock.

The median gap was 0.46%, down from 0.74% last week. (The median is the middle value when the 11 gaps are sorted by size, ignoring sign. A single outlier moves it less than it moves the average.)

6) Next week

Mon 2 Nov, after the close: Apple results.

Tue 3 Nov: US midterm elections; AMD reports and Supermicro holds its call after the close.

Wed 4 Nov: Circle reports at 8am; Arm and Qualcomm report after the close.

Fri 6 Nov, 8:30am: October payrolls, the first jobs report after the Fed's 28 October decision.

Meta was first to report, and the market's answer was up first, then down. Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon report this week, and Apple and the chipmakers follow next week. The return on AI spending will stay the main question for both weeks.

TokenInsight TradFi Weekly, updated every week.