What Happened on Mar. 20th | Estimating $ARB Price Range

TI Research

With the Arbtrium Airdrop approaching, there are numerous analyses on Twitter attempting to predict the potential trading price of $ARB; I chose one from Onchain Wizard, which I found to be a reasonable guess.

Most people have been using TVL vs. FDV calculations to predict where Arbitrum's trading value should be.

This analysis has typically used $OP as the closest comparable to $ARB, given the 2 L2s are the leaders in terms of TVL. The simple valuation methodology folks have been using is OP FDV/TVL is ~5.74, and if you apply this to ARB’s TVL, you get an implied FDV of $22bn or a $2.2 $ARB price.

An interesting point made by Onchainwizard is the primarily input of this analysis, OP’s TVL, contains ~$570M of native $OP tokens (according to L2beat), which is over 1/4th of the chain’s TVL. If you exclude this from the “multiple” calculations, then you would obviously get a much higher implied $ARB price

Overall, the potential trading range of Arbitrum is estimated to be anywhere from $1 to $2, but it should be noted that these calculations are based on various assumptions and may not necessarily be accurate.

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