TI Weekly Options Market : Bitcoin ETF Listed, Short Sold Positions
Summarizing the data of last week market, we find that:
- SEC allows bitcoin futures ETFs to begin trading ;
- Block traders have sold their short positions ;
- Some long-term investors have begun to choose to put their assets on the exchange to sell.
Judging from the transaction data, the spot price of Bitcoin rose from $56,000 to $63,000 on October 15. Positive investment sentiment was reflected in the options market. According to Gvol's official data, two Bitcoin put options with an execution price of $300,000\$400,000 & an expiration date of March 2022 were traded in the current market. TokenInsight analyzes that such an operation may be for investors to increase the Greeks in the portfolio.
From the perspective of Option market indicators, the implied volatility of Bitcoin at-value options accelerated on the 15th, which shows that such a violent rise has exceeded the expectations of many investors. At the same time, the options skew has reached a new low. This is a very unusual investment portfolio: when the market is accelerating upward, investors are buying put options at a premium!
Analyzing the option order book, we can find that an investor sold 1,000 bitcoin put options with a strike price of $48,000 at a high premium（IV: 119%）. This transaction accounted for 7% of the day's block trading volume. In fact, why do investors want to sell put options when the market is going up? We guess it may be because the previous block traders have accumulated too many short positions. In the process of the market's higher-than-expected rise, the position had to be closed.
In the past seven days, the cryptocurrency market was full of confidence in the SEC's approval of the Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF), and the results were as investors expected. According to the disclosure of the Bitcoin ETF in the regulatory documents, the Bitcoin ETF will be listed and traded on the New York Stock Exchange. The ETF will anchor the price index of Bitcoin, which will be achieved through the allocation of equivalent Bitcoin Futures not directly invest in bitcoin. As of the time of releasing the article, CME's contract transactions have not changed significantly, and we will keep track of CME's Bitcoin contract holdings.
However, on-chain transactions and long-term indicators show different information, and some investors have begun to choose to put their assets on the exchange to sell. According to data released by Glassnode, some long-term investors have begun to sell their Bitcoin holdings on the chain. Bitcoin is expected to face an environment of increased volatility in the future.
Stimulated by the good news, the trading of Ethereum options is also hot, and the large transactions also hit a new high in nearly two months this week. Call options with a strike price of about $5,000 have become the subject of investors' scramble. With the innovation of DeFi applications, the demand for Ethereum on the chain will be strengthened, and Ethereum's supplementary growth logic is very optimistic.
According to the changes in the flows of the crypto asset fund announced by Coinshares, last week, the crypto asset fund had a net inflow of $79 million, of which the net inflow of Bitcoin exceeded $60 million. Bitcoin ETF listed and trading is positive information for prices. However, compared to GBTC with asset requirements and lock-up periods, there are no handling fees or management fees for Bitcoin ETFs. With increasing regulatory pressures, some investors will choose to hold Bitcoin ETFs, which may not be a good thing for many cryptocurrency exchanges.