TI Weekly Options Market : Risk

TI Research

The crypto asset market has returned to a more balanced position after the decline in late November. Bitcoin has recovered to the $55,000 position range, and the trend of Ethereum's rebound is more ideal. The mutation of the new coronavirus in Europe has brought new uncertainties to the market. Compared with November last year, the current market is more cautious about the allocation of positions.

  • Last week, crypto funds inflows of 300 million dollars,Bitcoin funds inflows 240 million dollars;
  • Whales start to release Bitcoin;
  • Ethereum options skew turns from positive to negative, and market sentiment is pessimistic

Bitcoin

From the perspective of the bitcoin option position structure, the long and short sides have a more balanced judgment for next year. The execution price of options positions at $60,000 has a more obvious difference. From my view, the price performance of the spot market makes Bitcoin bullish sentiment not obvious.

The main line of the crypto market has undergone significant changes, and the popularity of GameFi has strengthened Ethereum. At the same time, the center of gravity of the game at the capital level has also begun to move, and the interest of the perpetual contract has gradually converged to zero. As we said in the previous weekly report, in the current market environment, Bitcoin lacks income elasticity.

According to the on-chain situation released by Ecoinmetrics, the Bitcoin whale address is reducing the accumulation of Bitcoin soon. Since October, the whale address has lost interest in accumulating coins. Investors should be reminded that this is a long-term indicator, and the continuity of the whale action means that there may not be too many surprises in the market during the year.

Ethereum

From the perspective of Ethereum's holding structure, we can see investors' optimistic expectations for Ethereum. On-chain application innovation once again stimulated the demand for Ethereum, and options with a strike price of $5,000 or more were fully allocated. In terms of market expectations, GameFi can continue until February 2022, and the bottom-up selection of tokens is a better investment strategy.

Subject to the current market sentiment, the skew of Ethereum options dropped to a negative value. Although the rebound strength is not small, the power of the short side still exists. We believe that there is greater uncertainty in the current market. Play to Earn is a good marketing method to attract traffic, and the entertainment of the game is the key to retaining users.

Conclusion

According to data released by Coinshares, last week the crypto asset fund inflows were 300 million dollars, of which Bitcoin inflows were 240 million dollars. Fed Chairman Powell has been nominated for re-election as Fed Chairman. This result maintains the continuity of the Fed's monetary policy. After taking office, controlling inflation is the top priority.

Options

TI Research

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