TRB Price Rollercoaster: Riding the Surge or Preparing for a Crash

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Can the driving forces behind TRB continue to push its price to climb? Is it a good time to buy TRB? This article provides an in-depth analysis of TRB's price trends. Don't miss it!

TL;DR

  • TRB price's September surge was primarily driven by whales' manipulation; its mid-October rise was mainly influenced by macro-market sentiment.
  • Tellor protocol lacks apparent standout superiorities, and its token price doesn't match the project development status. Overall, TRB's value appears overestimated, with a significant bubble.
  • Currently, three whales control approximately 25.7% of TRB's total supply, worth over $65.3 million.
  • TRB's price may continue to rise to $110-130 in the short term, but a sharp drop resulting from whale liquidation could occur at any time.

What is Tellor?

Tellor is a decentralized oracle protocol. Its primary service is to provide users with access to off-chain data outside the Ethereum network (e.g., API or transaction data from the Polygon network).

Tellor aims to address the issue of information isolation within the Ethereum network. It has established a standalone data system within the network. Users can request data from the system through smart contracts. Tellor, upon receiving requests, queries the system and associates the relevant data based on users' specific needs.

Additionally, Tellor allows data feed. Data submitters are rewarded with TRB, but they must pay gas fees and stake TRB to ensure the accuracy of their data submissions.

TRB

TRB is the native utility token of Tellor, primarily used to incentivize users within the network to feed data. TRB doesn't have a fixed supply; its total supply increases with data feed rewards.

According to Tellor, users who feed data to the system receive TRB as a reward. However, prior to this, users are required to stake a certain amount of TRB as collateral to ensure data accuracy.

Additionally, TRB is used in Tellor's disputing mechanism. When the accuracy of fed data is challenged, TRB is used for voting arbitration. Only when the arbitration is addressed can users receive rewards. TRB can also employed in the governance of Tellor protocol.

Reasons Behind TRB's Sudden Surge

The Initial Rise

TRB's initial surge began in September 2023. According to TokenInsight data, TRB's price started a significant uptrend on September 7th, skyrocketing from around a dozen dollars to a peak of $45 within a week. By the end of September, it had exceeded $60, marking an impressive monthly gain of 275%.

TRB Price Trend in September

So, what caused the sharp rise in TRB?

According to our research, the primary reason for TRB's significant surge in September was whale manipulation.

Based on data from Etherscan, the address currently holding the most TRB is 0xCcE7300829f49B8f2E4AEe6123b12DA64662a8b8. It's worth noting that this address is anonymous, and there is no evidence to suggest it belongs to any exchange or institutional entity currently.

Since August 30th until now, this whale has accumulated approximately 441,813 TRB, equivalent to around $41.44 million (calculated based on TRB price on October 25th), representing 17.39% of TRB's total supply.

Interestingly, this address has consistently held the largest amount of TRB since September. Based on on-chain transaction records, this address conducted a series of suspicious trading operations in September, directly causing the rocketing increase in TRB's price.

Now, let's examine the specific transactions of this address in September:

  • From August 30th to September 13th, multiple transfers of TRB from Binance and OKX were made, totaling 755,350 TRB, approximately 30% of TRB's total supply.
  • From August 31st to September 3rd, it transferred TRB eight times to an anonymous address, 0x50Cbc6faeEE68FB63e0A3c8ac8Cda8A8505c960B, totaling approximately 213,538 TRB.
  • On September 15th, it initially transferred 100,000 TRB to the Binance address 0x04D8626775e95CecB44DCa386027def00Aa45C62, and then subsequently transferred 99,999 TRB from Binance.

Most of the TRB at address 0x50C...60B has already been transferred. On September 4th, 5th, and 15th, the TRB in this address was transferred back to the Binance address 0x04D...C62 in three separate transactions, totaling 331,825 TRB.

These transaction activities strongly indicate that this whale was likely engaging in pump-and-dump behavior for TRB. Through massive self-trading and high-volume transactions, it successfully caused TRB's price to nearly quadruple. Given TRB's relatively low market capitalization at the time, the impact of this whale manipulation on its price was quite evident.

The Second Surge

TRB Price Trend from September to October

Following the initial sharp increase, TRB's price stabilized at $45-50 in early October. Subsequently, influenced by a series of Bitcoin spot ETF news, the overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market continued to rise, resulting in a mini-bull market. TRB's price also surged during the period from October 15th to 25th, rising from $50 to a peak of $95, marking an increase of approximately 90%. Compared to the market's average increase of 20-30%, TRB emerged as one of the most significant beneficiaries of this sentiment-driven mini-bull market.

The Future of TRB

As investors, one of the most pressing questions we focus on apparently is the future price trend of TRB. Is there still room for TRB's price to grow, or is there any risk of a sharp decline?

Based on our research result, TRB's price in the short term is likely to follow market sentiment and may even continue to rise to around $110-130. However, a sudden downturn caused by whale liquidation is a possibility at any moment. Therefore, we advise investors to exercise caution when trading TRB and avoid holding large quantities for extended periods to mitigate potential risks.

Our Analysis

Firstly, when we consider the Tellor protocol on its own, excluding macro market factors and whale manipulation, it essentially falls into the category of many decentralized oracle protocols in the market, with no particular standout features. Like many DApp projects, the value growth of its token is directly tied to the project's development.

Looking at the current usage of the Tellor protocol, influenced by the current market hype, there are approximately 200-300 daily users feeding data to the Tellor system. However, the number of users who actually receive rewards from this is quite minimal.

For instance, on October 24th, only 4 users received TRB rewards for data feed.

Tellor Data Feed Interface

According to Tellor's token economics, the supply of TRB is linked to data feed rewards. Therefore, in the current situation, TRB's total supply is growing relatively slowly, and its price is not likely to experience a sudden drop due to massive issuance.

So, what is the main factor affecting TRB's price? The answer is quite clear: the Whales of TRB.

Apart from the top whale mentioned earlier, which holds 17.39% of TRB's total supply, there are two more anonymous addresses holding significant amounts of TRB:

This address acquired approximately 111,892 TRB from Coinbase in multiple transactions between September 8th and 25th, valued at $9.85 million. It currently ranks third on the TRB Top Holder List, holding about 4.4% of TRB's total supply.

This address obtained roughly 85,805 TRB from Binance in multiple transactions from October 20th onwards, valued at $7.5 million. It currently ranks sixth on the TRB Top Holder List, holding about 3.4% of TRB's total supply.

Statistically, these three whale addresses together control nearly 25.7% of TRB's total supply. At the current market prices, their holdings are worth over $65.3 million.

Because TRB currently has a relatively low circulating supply, it is more susceptible to manipulation by these whales. In other words, whether they engage in pump-and-dump or liquidate their holdings, these whales can significantly impact TRB's price. Given the ongoing upward trend in TRB's price, the possibility of these whales suddenly liquidating their holdings one day is quite high. This could lead to a sudden crash in TRB's price, potentially causing the overall collapse of Tellor.

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