TI Weekly Option Market: Bitcoin Dominance
The United States announced September non-agricultural employment data in October, which was less than the expected labor market situation to have a certain impact on the market. However, most investors believe that under the benchmark situation, the Fed will still announce in November and start Taper in December. . However, the macroeconomic changes have not affected the investment enthusiasm of the crypto currency market. In the past seven days, Bitcoin has achieved a rise of more than 10%. As of the publication, the spot price of Bitcoin has reached $57,000. Such price performance is second only to the highs during the year.
Summarizing the data of last week market, we find that:
- Bitcoin's market capitalization share increased from 40% to 46%；
- In the past seven days, Bitcoin call options have been intensively traded, concentrated in the following month；
- The implied volatility of Ethereum is reduced to 71%。
Bitcoin
Observing the trading of block options contracts in the past week, benefiting from the rise in the spot price of Bitcoin, the transaction of options is still mainly bullish. From the perspective of position structure, the focus of block transactions lies in recent months and the following month. Such a transaction structure is very healthy. At the same time, many traders bought out-of-the-money put contracts, and the market is slowly gaining momentum in reason.
Bitcoin's outstanding performance in the past week has formed a very obvious siphon effect. Without large-scale incremental issuance of stablecoin, the rise of Bitcoin has suppressed the valuation of other cryptocurrencies to a certain extent. From the perspective of Bitcoin's market value, the market value of Bitcoin's cryptocurrency has risen from 40% to 46%. Investors should be reminded that the increase in the share of Bitcoin's market value means that investors tend to allocate benchmarks to the industry.
The rise in spot prices drives the activity of the derivatives market. Bitcoin futures contracts are currently in a state of forwarding premiums, and such future premiums are not low. The data compiled by glass node shows that the current Bitcoin contract annualized interest rate premium is about 10%, which is unprecedented in the third quarter of 2021.
Ethereum
In the past week, the spot price of Ethereum remained to fluctuate around $3,500. Not only Ethereum but there is also no obvious market for DeFi tokens as a whole. If Bitcoin's spot market can attract sustained funds inflows, then the relevant DeFi, NFT, and GameFi tokens will hopefully take over the market. TokenInsight continues to track the changes of the cryptocurrency asset fund every week. Regarding the inflow of cryptocurrency asset funds announced by Coinshares this week, the inflow of Bitcoin reached $225 million last week. At the same time, cryptocurrency funds have continued to show net inflows in the past two months, and the current market has a relatively solid foundation.
Judging from the historical changes in volatility, the implied volatility of Ethereum has fallen back to 71%, which is the lowest level in the past two months. The last time the implied volatility of Ethereum was in the range of 50%, the NFT 、GameFi market ignited the enthusiasm of the market, and its spot price rose from $3,000 to $4,000.
Conclusion
When the macroeconomic situation changes, the cryptocurrency market has not been severely affected. As blockchain technology continues to evolve, it provides participants with a better experience. Of course, continuous capital inflow is the key to the development of the entire cryptocurrency market. With the gradual increase in the market value of Bitcoin, the change in investment style may have begun to change, but this time the market is developing in a healthier direction.
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