TI Weekly Options Market : Meme Market Back,Market Needs more Patience

TI Research

In the last two months of 2021, Bitcoin has gradually remained stable at $60,000, and has not achieved significant gains in the past two weeks. At the same time, many memes have started the market, and NFT and GameFi protcol have achieved impressive returns without fundamental improved. This is a more dangerous signal. Investors should be reminded that the current market price of Shib has exceeded the high point set by "519".

Summarizing the data of last week's market, we find that:

  • Bitcoin option skew goes lower,call option is losing its premium;
  • The open interest in CME has declined in the past seven days;
  • Long-term Holders start selling bitcoins on-chain.


Observing the options structure of Bitcoin, the focus of trading begins to tilt to the lower left of the image. Investors buy recent put options and shallow out-of-value call options. Such activities show that market sentiment is gradually cooling down. As market conditions spread to Meme, the risk control of optimistic investors in the market is declining. On the contrary, options traders are beginning to be cautious.

Option market data also reflects this problem. Option skewness is approaching near zero, and the premium of call options drops quickly. At the same time, the implied volatility of options is gradually decreasing, which shows that investors are not very obvious. Bitcoin's current rise has slowed down, and investors with overweight positions can lock in gains appropriately.

According to the futures data released by CME, from the perspective of institutional investors' allocation of Bitcoin, the inflow of funds driven by ETFs has confirmed the high point of holding positions, and there has been a certain degree of decline.

From the perspective of funding rate, the funding rate for the most recent month is similar to that of May this year, which shows that the current funding has a strong risk appetite. According to OTC data published by Kraken, altcoin accounts for 90% of the capital inflows. Investors are reminded that the sharp rise of altcoin is not a positive signal for the market.

Analyzing the changes in the data on the chain in the past week, according to the data provided by Glassnode, the age of the tokens spent on the current chain is increasing. At the same time, the report of Ecoinometrics also confirms this view. Whale investors and Fish investors are both In the midst of a trend to sell Bitcoin. In the short term, the upward momentum may be weakened.


Ethereum broke a new high last week, and the current spot price of Ethereum has stabilized at around US$4,200. After Bitcoin led the gains, earnings spread to the entire market. Combined with the position data, the position structure of Ethereum is more optimistic than that of Bitcoin, and many out-of-the-money call options have been traded in the past seven days.


The proliferation of transactions from Bitcoin to altcoin has made us more worried about the shape of the market. Since September last year, cryptocurrency assets have started a bull market. After Bitcoin’s strong recovery, ETH has also begun to rise, and then DeFi tokens such as UNI、SUSHI、AAVE entered the upward channel, and then cryptocurrency assets such as Doge and Shib also began to attract a large number of funds in the later period, in the end, the market began to decline. Perhaps a rational return is the best result for the current market.


TI Research

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