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2019 Q2 矿业研究季度报告

2019 Q2 Crypto Mining Research Report

2019年第二季度,随着比特币价格的大幅上涨,Bitcoin挖矿行业全面复苏。大多数来自不同制造商的ASIC矿机严重短缺,新提交的订单均将在2019年第三季度甚至更晚的时间交付。对于比特币矿机的投资和交易增长速度大幅超越上一季度。由于在上半年提交的主流ASIC矿机订单均将在2019年下半年交付并投入运营,同时随着丰水期的到来,Bitcoin网络的整体难度预计将增加48%-72%,达到14.74T-17.14T,算力将增长至109 EH/s – 127 EH/s。2019年下半年, 挖矿难度的增加将削弱部分小算力矿机的营收能力。

  1. 2019年第二季度,随着Bitocin价格的大幅上涨,Bitcoin挖矿行业全面复苏。大多数来自不同制造商的ASIC矿机严重短缺,新提交的订单将在2019年第三季度甚至更晚的时候交付。对于Bitcoin矿机的投资和交易增长速度大幅超越上一季度。
  2. 由于在上半年提交的主流ASIC矿机订单均将在2019年下半年交付并投入运营,同时随着丰水期的到来,Bitcoin网络的整体难度预计将增加48%-72%,达到14.74T-17.14T,算力将增长至109 EH/s – 127 EH/s。2019年下半年, 挖矿难度的增加将削弱部分小算力矿机的营收能力。
  3. 2019年第二季度中,在能效比低于50 Th / s的ASIC矿机中,Innosilicon T3 43T仍然是拥有最短成本回收期的矿机,回本周期为150天。该结果与上季度基本一致。尽管矿机价格有所提升,但受Bitcoin价格影响,Innosilicon T3 43T的成本回收期仍然缩短了 近100天。
  4. 考虑到Bitcoin网络目前的难度现状以及过去两个赛季的难度增长状况(分别为3.29%和4.73%),Bitcoin全网难度平均难度增长率预计将超过5%。在这种情况下,大多数Bitcoin矿机将无法回本。高算力矿机(例如Whatsminer M20S,哈希值为68 Th / s)抗难度波动的能力较强,与低算力矿机相比有明显优势。
  5. 云算力产品是大多数普通投资者进入挖矿行业的入口。与上赛季类似,BitDeer和VeryHash仍然是Bitcoin云算力市场的两个主要参与者。在2019年第二季度,BitDeer和VeryHash的主要产品大部分均已售罄,仅剩下Antminer S17,S15和S9云算力产品。一般来说,更先进的矿机通常具有更高的单位成本。
  6. 在2019年第二季度,头部矿池的算力排名与上一季度基本保持一致。没有新的矿池进入前20名。就算力占比而言,BTC.com仍然是最大的矿池,较后面的矿池相比有较明显优势。算力排名第二名的矿池是Antpool,其次为F2Pool。 Slushpool从上赛季的第二名下降到本赛季的第五名,总体算力出现了较大下滑。
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