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24H 现货交易量: $56,209,947,829.59
24H 衍生品交易量: $64,788,698,105.71
全市场合约未平仓量: $37,994,988,973.54
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TI 研报 - 2021 Q1 期货与期权市场

TI Research
TI Research Report - 2021 Q1 Crypto Futures & Options Market unsplash.com

在永续合约交易火热的当下,期货与期权市场,似乎是牛市下“被忽略的角落”。2021年第一季度,期货与期权合约市场总成交量仅占全市场7.21%,涉及期货与期权业务的交易所不过十余家。然而,期货与期权市场的重要性丝毫不可忽视。在投机者普遍转向永续合约的当下,期货市场与期权市场集聚了大量专业投资者,其中不乏各类机构。结合期货市场与期权市场的动向,我们得以观测其行为对于数字资产市场的看法与影响。

要点总结

  • 2021 年 Q1,开展期货交易业务的交易所共有 17 家,季度总成交量 2.07 万亿美元,占全市场成交量 6.77%。尽管与去年相比,期货成交量亦随着Q1牛市渐入佳境而大幅抬升,但其增长幅度相较于永续合约而言较低。
  • 除却奇异期权产品,Q1 期权市场成交额达 1332.2 亿美元,相当于去年全年成交量 1.73 倍,为本季度成长表现最佳衍生品细分市场。
  • Q1 数字资产期货合约持仓量涨幅于大部分时间段高于比特币涨幅,但低于以太坊涨幅,表明期货合约持仓群体整体增长相对缓慢,投资群体较为稳定。
  • 与永续合约市场的“百花齐放”不同,期货与期权市场依然延续着旧有的“一超多强”市场格局。期货与期权细分市场中,成交量前三交易所占比分别达到 93% 与 88%,相较于去年变化不明显,市场结构相对稳定。
  • 主流数字资产期权现时波动率差与标的资产近期未来价格间存在显著负相关关系,上述特性使得波动率差可以在一定程度上预测未来价格走势。
  • 非主流数字资产期权有所发展,其流动性相较于去年,已经可以得到一定程度保证,整体运营情况相对较为稳定。
  • 由于投机者转向永续合约市场,期货市场中专业投资群体的比例在 Q1 逐渐上升。
  • 期权投资者群体相较于去年而言变化相对较小。但一方面,个人投资者涌入正在改变期权市场结构;另一方面,从多空比等指标可以发现,期权市场个人投资者正在逐渐趋于理性与成熟。

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