What Happened on April. 18th | $ETH - $BTC Exchange rate Rallying, Alts Season Come?

TI Research

The exchange rate between $ETH and $BTC is an indicator often used to predict whether capital is relocating to the riskier spectrum of crypto tokens. Capital flows into $BTC first, then $ETH, then funnels into other coins and tokens.

The $ETH-BTC exchange rate experienced a sharp rally following the Shapella upgrade.

However, onchainwizard, a popular KOL, doesn't think it will lead to a widespread altcoin season.

  • There is unlikely to be a retail-driven "alt season" this year due to the recessionary US economy and no change in fed policy.
  • Despite recent gains in $ETH and $BTC, the market cap of alts is still relatively low compared to previous highs.
  • There may be some incremental flows to alts due to cooling US inflation, a pause in restrictive fiscal policy, and gains in $ETH and $BTC.
  • Selectivity will be key, focusing on "in season" names with momentum or independently successful projects.

His analysis is from the perspective of American investors. The United States will still be in a monetary tightening cycle, and the government's continuous attack on the crypto industry will also hinder new players from entering the market. However, the biggest potential positive factor this year is Hong Kong. After the new cryptocurrency policy is implemented in June, it remains to be seen whether it can open up the channels for depositing and withdrawing funds, allowing retail investors' capital to enter the market more easily. Whether the policy promoted by the Hong Kong government will attract a large amount of traditional capital in Hong Kong (high-net-worth investors, family offices, etc.) to enter the market is also an aspect worth looking forward to.

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