Summary of Token Unlocks in 2023 Q4

October Token Unlocks

In October, several prominent projects, including Aptos, ApeCoin, Axie Infinity, and Optimism, will undergo a new round of token unlocks. We have compiled information on 12 upcoming token unlock events with unlock amounts exceeding $1 million. This information includes details such as unlock quantity, timing, amount, circulating supply, and other key data.

Now, let's delve into the specifics of these unlocks and analyze their potential impact on token prices.

Large-Scale Token Unlocks

In October, there are four projects with token unlock amounts exceeding $10 million: Apecoin, Aptos, Optimism, and Axie Infinity. Among these, Axie Infinity has the largest token unlock amount among all projects in October.

Axie Infinity (AXS)

Axie Infinity will unlock approximately 15.13 million AXS tokens, valued at $67.91 million, on October 20th at 9:10 pm (GMT+8). The unlock accounts for approximately 11.5% of the current circulating supply of AXS. The distribution of the unlock is as follows:

• Team: 40.19%
• Staking Rewards: 22.67%
• Play to Earn: 22.34%
• Ecosystem Fund: 11.17%
• Advisors: 3.63%

It's evident that the largest proportion of AXS tokens being unlocked belongs to the Team allocation. According to data disclosed by Axie Infinity, the team allocation represents approximately 17.2% of the total AXS supply. From November 4, 2020, to the present, the Team portion has already unlocked 59.52%, which is roughly 33.75 million AXS tokens. The unlocking frequency is every 6 months, with each unlock accounting for 10.12%.

We calculated the potential price change of AXS based on the percentage of circulating supply being unlocked in this round, assuming the market cap remains constant. AXS's price could potentially drop by 10.32% due to the unlock. However, when considering historical data from previous unlocks and the selling behavior, the actual price volatility of AXS may not be as significant.

Based on past unlock data, the price impact from previous unlocks was not substantial, typically around 1%. Additionally, this round's token unlock quantity has decreased for all segments except the team and ecosystem fund portions, with a reduction of approximately 4.13 million tokens in total. Therefore, the impact of this unlock on AXS's price is unlikely to be as substantial as calculated and is highly likely to be lower than the previous one.

Optimism (OP)

Optimism will unlock approximately 24.16 million OP tokens, valued at $30.92 million, on October 30th at 12pm (GMT+8). This unlock represents approximately 2.74% of the current circulating supply of OP tokens. The distribution of the unlock is as follows:

• Core Contributors: 52.77%
• Investors: 47.23%

According to the information disclosed by Optimism, this unlock is for the above two segments and follows a fixed linear monthly release since the cliff unlock on May 31, 2023, accounting for approximately 1.56% of these two segments. Currently, both the Core Contributors and Investors segments have already unlocked 34.1%.

Aptos (APT)

Aptos will unlock approximately 4.45 million APT tokens, valued at $17.16 million, on October 12th at 8am (GMT+8). The unlock accounts for approximately 1.9% of the current circulating supply of APT tokens. The distribution of the unlock is as follows:

• Foundation: 29.3%
• Community: 70.7%

According to the information disclosed by Aptos, this unlock is for the above two segments and follows a fixed linear monthly release since October 2022, occurring once a month, accounting for 0.63% and 0.81% of these two segments, respectively.

It's worth noting that APT will experience the initial unlock of Core Contributors and Investors portions one month later on November 12, 2023. The unlock quantity for these two segments is 6.25%, occurring monthly. In total, the number of unlocked tokens will be approximately 5 times that of the October unlock, totaling around 24.84 million APT.

Apecoin (APE)

ApeCoin will unlock approximately 15.6 million APE tokens, valued at $23.99 million, on October 17th at 8am (GMT+8). This unlock represents approximately 4.23% of the current circulating supply of APE tokens. The distribution of the unlock is as follows:

• DAO Treasury: 47.05%
• Yuga Labs & Founders: 40.96%
• Launch Contributors: 10.2%
• Charity: 1.79%

According to the information disclosed by Apecoin, this unlock consists of fixed linear monthly releases for the above segments, occurring once a month.

Forecast of Price Change

We've calculated the potential token price changes based on the percentage of circulating supply unlocked for each unlock event, assuming the market capitalization remains unchanged. From the chart, it's evident that Axie Infinity and CyberConnect are the two projects with the largest percentage of circulating supply unlocked in October. If all unlocked tokens were to be sold, they could have a price impact of over 10%. However, it's clear that the real situation won't mirror the calculations exactly.

Based on our analysis, the tokens being unlocked in October for these projects are typically subject to fixed linear monthly releases. Therefore, when calculating the price impact, we need to consider historical price fluctuations and the actual behavior of token sales. Additionally, the volatility shown in the chart is calculated assuming the market capitalization remains constant, which may not align with actual market conditions.

Taking all factors into account, the actual price volatility for tokens unlocked in all these projects is likely to be significantly lower than the number presented in the chart. For example, as discussed in the Axie Infinity section above, the actual price volatility for AXS is unlikely to exceed 10% and may very well be less than 1%.

November & December Token Unlocks

The unlock events in October are primarily characterized by ongoing monthly fixed linear releases. While there are some projects with significant unlock amounts worth keeping an eye on, there aren't any projects in particular that require special attention.

However, it's worth noting that within this group of projects, Aptos and dYdX will have "truly" significant unlocks in November and December. Let's now delve into the specific details of these upcoming unlocks.

APT

Aptos will start the initial unlock for Core Contributors and Investors on November 12, 2023. The unlock quantity for these two segments is 6.25%, with the specific quantities as follows:

• Core Contributors: 11.875 million APT
• Investors: 8.425 million APT

When combined with the monthly fixed linear releases for the Community and Foundation portions, Aptos will unlock a total of 24.84 million APT in November. This amount is approximately five times the unlock in October and is valued at approximately $121.5 million, representing 10.37% of Aptos' current market capitalization.

DYDX

dYdX will experience its initial unlock for Investors, Employees/Advisors, and Future Employees/Advisors on December 3, 2023. The unlock quantity for these three segments is all 30%, with the specific quantities as follows:

• Investors: 83.1 million DYDX
• Employees/Advisors: 45.9 million DYDX
• Future Employees/Advisors: 21 million DYDX

In December, dYdX will unlock a total of 150 million DYDX in a single release, valued at approximately $285.69 million, representing 84.6% of DYDX's current market capitalization.

Summary

After compiling all the unlocked information and conducting an analysis, we have arrived at the following conclusions:

• Most of the unlocks in October come from the team, investors, and advisors segments, and they are primarily structured as ongoing monthly fixed linear releases. Although there are individual projects with significant unlock amounts, there are no one-time large unlocks post-Cliff.
• While individual projects (e.g., AXS) may show relatively high calculated price volatility based on the percentage of circulating supply unlocked, when considering historical price fluctuations and token sale behavior, the actual impact of this unlock on their token prices is not expected to be significant.
• November and December have two unlock events that warrant special attention: the 24.84 million APT unlock on November 12 and the 150 million DYDX unlock on December 3.