TokenInsight TradFi Weekly #009: A Month of TradFi Perps

1) The week outside: the Fed, inflation and earnings

The Fed held. On 28 October it kept rates at 3.75%–4.00%; 2 officials voted for a hike.

Strong growth, firm inflation. Q3 GDP grew 3.4% annualized. September PCE inflation rose to 3.6% from 3.4%.

A split earnings week. Intel perps fell 23.9% on the week and Alphabet 11.7%; SK hynix rose 9.5%.

2) Movers: 45% of perps rose

Among the 114 OKX TradFi perps with at least $1M in weekly volume (excluding leveraged and inverse ETFs), 51 rose last week, or 45%.

Top gainer: PURR, +21.8%. PURR is Hyperliquid Strategies, a digital-asset treasury company that holds HYPE.

Vertiv (VRT, +19.5%) reported orders doubling on 28 October; SoFi (SOFI, +15.3%) beat estimates and raised guidance on 27 October.

Top loser: Reddit (RDDT), −35.2%. Its Q4 guidance missed estimates on 29 October.

ServiceNow (NOW, −33.2%) flagged slower backlog growth, and Intel (INTC, −23.9%) guided Q4 revenue below estimates.

3) Four-week tracker: what happened to the open interest?

In issue #007 we found that as chips sold off in mid-October, open interest in SOXL, SK hynix and other perps doubled, a likely sign of dip buying. This issue follows open interest across four Sundays (11, 18 and 25 October and 1 November). Open interest here is estimated in underlying units (notional ÷ closing price), which removes the effect of price on dollar value. Data covers Binance, Bybit and OKX.

SOXL: OI held. Since 18 October, open interest is up 5%, while the price fell another 16%.

SK hynix: OI fell. The price rebounded 16% and open interest fell 37%.

KORU: OI down. The price went sideways; open interest fell 22% last week.

Intel: OI doubled. After earnings, the price fell 24% last week while open interest rose 109%, the same pattern SOXL showed two weeks earlier.

The same surge in open interest has played out differently. As SK hynix recovered, open interest fell back; as SOXL kept falling, open interest stayed high. Total open interest cannot show whether the same traders are involved, and some positions may be hedges rather than bets on a rebound.

4) Exchanges: 58% more volume in four weeks

Weekly volume on the same 15 exchanges: $137.5B → $198.3B → $208.0B → $216.9B.

Weekend volume peaked at $17.0B in the week of 12 October and has fallen for two weeks, to $9.7B last week.

Binance held a steady 53–55% share. OKX rose from 9.3% to 10.3%; BingX fell from 5.7% to 3.7%.

MEXC volume rose 40% last week, from $11.1B to $15.6B, lifting its share to 7.2%.

5) Weekend gap: flat on the week

The US left daylight saving time on 1 November. At the 8pm ET overnight reopen that Sunday:

8 of 11 perps were priced above the stock.

The median gap was 0.46%, the same as the week before. The four-week high was 0.74% on 18 October.

The median is the middle value when the 11 gaps are sorted by size, ignoring sign.

6) Next week

Tue 10 Nov, 8:30am: October CPI; CoreWeave reports after the close.

Wed 11 Nov: Veterans Day. The bond market is closed; stocks trade normally.

Thu 12 Nov: Nebius reports before the open, Applied Materials after the close.

Fri 13 Nov, 8:30am: October PPI.

Over the past month, TradFi perp volume kept growing, but mostly on weekdays. Open interest in some chip perps has eased, while in others it remains high. Next week's CPI is the next test.

TokenInsight TradFi Weekly, updated every week.

FAQ

Q1: What are TradFi perpetual contracts?

A1: TradFi perpetual contracts ("TradFi perps") are perpetual futures listed on crypto exchanges that track US stocks, ETFs, commodities such as gold and oil, or pre-IPO companies. They have no expiry, settle in stablecoins such as USDT, and trade 24/7, including weekends and nights when US stock markets are closed.

Q2: Which exchange has the most TradFi perp volume?

A2: Binance. In the four weeks from 5 October to 1 November 2026, Binance handled 53–55% of TradFi perp volume each week. OKX was second, with its share rising from 9.3% to 10.3%; Hyperliquid, MEXC and Bitget each held roughly 6–9%.

Q3: How much do TradFi perps trade on weekends?

A3: Far less than on weekdays. In the week of 26 October 2026, average daily volume on Saturday and Sunday was about 12% of the weekday average. Weekend volume totaled $9.7B, down from $17.0B two weeks earlier, the second straight weekly decline.

Q4: How much did the Intel perp fall in the last week of October 2026?

A4: The Intel perp on OKX fell 23.9% in the week of 26 October to 1 November 2026. Intel reported earnings on 29 October with Q4 revenue guidance below expectations. Over the same week, open interest in the Intel perp rose 109%, about 2.1 times the prior week.