Your stock market closes for the weekend. Your stock perp keeps trading. How far can the two prices drift and where do they meet when stocks reopen?
This week, we tracked NVDA’s perp through all 48 hours. It fell, recovered, and finished almost unchanged. When overnight stock trading resumed, NVDA opened just $0.03 below the perp’s last weekend price.
If you only checked the opening price, you missed the move.
This is Issue #004 of TradFi Weekly: what traders traded, what moved most, and what happened while stocks were closed.
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1) Gold led trading. NVDA’s weekend ended almost flat—but prices moved along the way.
The backdrop, as of September 23
The Fed raised rates to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16. A week later, US business survey data showed faster growth alongside continued inflation pressure.
NVDA rose 2.3% on Monday, September 21, then fell 1.5% on Wednesday, September 23.
Against that backdrop, we look back at the September 14–20 trading window and the weekend before stocks reopened.
2) Gold had the highest TradFi perp volume
Gold-linked perps recorded $16.47B in trading volume across our sample, almost twice Sandisk’s $8.45B.
Chip-related assets occupied three of the top six spots: Sandisk, SK hynix and SOXL, a daily 3× long semiconductor ETF. Gold, silver and WTI crude oil filled the other three.
The most-traded assets therefore extended beyond individual stocks to metals, energy and leveraged ETFs.
3) MSTR 2× ETF perps led the gains. SOXS fell the most.
The displayed gainers all tracked daily leveraged ETFs:
MSTU +48.9%: daily 2× long Strategy (MSTR).
INTW +38.8%: daily 2× long Intel (INTC).
SNXX +36.8%: daily 2× long Sandisk (SNDK).
The biggest declines in the reviewed sample were:
SOXS −24.5%: daily 3× inverse semiconductor ETF.
FLNC −21.5%: Fluence Energy ordinary stock.
CRCD −18.8%: daily 2× inverse Circle (CRCL) ETF.
The product matters. SOXS and CRCD provide inverse exposure, so their declines do not mean the stocks they track fell.
4) NVDA’s stock reopened close to its perp price
NVDA’s Friday 20:00 EDT stock reference was $222.51. Its Binance perp continued trading through the weekend, falling before recovering ahead of Sunday’s overnight stock session.
At the reopening:
Perp just before 20:00 EDT: $222.58
Stock’s first overnight price: $222.55
The two prices were only $0.03 apart.
The weekend contained a dip and a recovery, even though the final perp price ended close to where it started. By the time stock trading resumed, the two markets were pricing NVDA at nearly the same level.
That is evidence of alignment in this case; it does not establish that the perp predicted the stock’s opening price.
5) After the Fed hike, what happened while stocks were closed?
Last week, we asked two questions: how TradFi perps trade during the next 48-hour stock closure, and when prices move?
NVDA gave us a first case study.
Its Binance perp fell and recovered, ending almost flat at −0.03%. The sharpest hourly decline was −0.51%, from Saturday 23:00 to Sunday 00:00 EDT.
By Sunday’s overnight reopening, the stock’s first price was close to the perp’s final weekend reference.
The next question: does that alignment hold across more stocks and through the reopening?
If you hold US stocks or trade stock perps, this is TokenInsight’s weekly dataset built for that gap.
TokenInsight TradFi Weekly, updated every week.
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